Vladimir Putin’s disastrous Ukraine adventure has united Moscow’s foes, stunted Russia’s economy, and frayed Beijing’s ties with the Kremlin, a senior Communist-aligned academic said.
Feng Yujun is Director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University. He also is Vice Dean of Fudan’s Institute of International Studies. He represents a powerful, well-informed faction in China’s ruling elite. His doubts about Beijing’s support for Moscow arise as Congress’ long-delayed approval of Ukraine aid looms. It’s good news for Kyiv.
Meanwhile in Manhattan, longtime Putin fanboy Donald Trump appears poised to lose his first criminal trial.
In Washington, Marjorie Taylor Greene and her far-right, pro-Moscow Freedom Caucus allies’ power wanes.
Historical shadows have cast a pall over China’s relations with Russia for centuries. Scholars in both countries cite the legacy of several wars, and persistent territorial rivalry, when they analyze the issue.
China’s ambitions to reclaim lands seized by the tsars aren't secret. Beijing’s maps of Russia’s Far East regions show their Qing dynasty names.
Xi Jinping has the upper hand in his dealings with Putin.
Feng implied in a recent article that savvy Chinese Communists seek to distance themselves from Moscow.
“Shrewd observers note that China’s stance towards Russia has reverted from the ‘no limits’ stance of early 2022, before the war, to the traditional principles of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties,” Feng wrote.
The article appeared in London’s The Economist magazine. As such, it’s a mash note to NATO.
Feng added that Russia’s army will lose the war.
“In time it will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Its nuclear capability is no guarantee of success,” Feng wrote. “Didn’t a nuclear-armed America withdraw from Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan?”
Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will improve global security, he added:
“Since the war began China has conducted two rounds of diplomatic mediation. Success has proved elusive but no one should doubt China’s desire to end this cruel war through negotiations.
“That wish shows that China and Russia are very different countries. Russia is seeking to subvert the existing international and regional order by means of war, whereas China wants to resolve disputes peacefully.
“With Russia still attacking Ukrainian military positions, critical infrastructure and cities, and possibly willing to escalate further, the chances of a Korea-style armistice look remote. In the absence of a fundamental change in Russia’s political system and ideology, the conflict could become frozen. That would only allow Russia to continue to launch new wars after a respite, putting the world in even greater danger.”
The Chinese Communist Party’s skepticism, not to say betrayal, of its Russian ally reaffirms the wisdom of Joe Biden’s foreign policies.
The war’s not over yet. But good news for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is bad news for fascist tyrants worldwide.